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The Northwest Passage: The Future of Shipping

TORONTO: The Northern Passages, especially the Northwest passage across the top of Canada, are predicted to become more viable shipping routes in the future. As a result of the retreat of the Arctic ice cap, shipping opportunities will open up and worldwide sea-bound travel times will dramatically be reduced. In the near future the most realistic prospect is the opening up of the traditional Northwest Passage through the Canadian Archipelago. Discussions between the Russian and the Canadian governments have started that could see the cross-polar trade route between Murmansk and the Canadian port city Churchill on Hudson Bay open year round.

The Northern Passage is predicted to become a more viable shipping route in the future.  As a result of the retreat of the Arctic ice cap, shipping opportunities will open up and worldwide sea-bound travel times will dramatically be reduced. The sailing distance over the North Pole between Kobe, Japan and Hamburg, Germany would be around 5,000 nautical miles as opposed to 11,225 nautical miles via the traditional Suez Canal route.   This time savings will however not be realized for many years as ships may need to be ice strengthened. 

Weather trends opens the Northwest Passage
In the near future, it will become attractive to send ice breakers through the polar route.  There is expected to be a gradual clearing of old multi-year ice (sea ice that survives one or more summers) from the traditional Northwest Passage routes through the Canadian Archipelago in the next 15 years. Shipping season through this route will lengthen and extend from perhaps April to December. Previously, the Northwest Passage has been predicted to remain closed even during reduced ice cover by multi-year ice pack. Warm weather trends indicate that the passage may well open sooner than expected.

The most direct route of the Northwest Passage across northern Canada will be navigable.  The shortest sea route between the Atlantic and Pacific will never be ice-free year round due to the tilt of the earth and the long winter night in the polar regions. The map below shows the three different possible routes.

Control of Shipping Routes with the Use of Icebreakers
According to the Canadian Polar Commission, the Russians seem to be the ones best positioned to control shipping along the Northern Sea Route, as well as to promote, assist and regulate traffic to its own benefit. Russia is the only nation with strong enough icebreakers to assist and rescue vessels on the route.

Canada has the second longest coastal sea route in the Arctic, and at this point seems to have no abiding interest in controlling the waterways through creating a strong icebreaking fleet.  The Canadian Arctic Waters Pollution Protection Act, with the Arctic Shipping Pollution Prevention Regulation has been voluntary so far.  Canada has a plan to build 6-8 patrol boats, but these will only be “ice strengthened”, and can only get through approximately a metre of ice.

The Danes currently have no icebreaking capacity because there has previously been no need in Greenland. The US has two pioneering icebreakers, the Polar Star and the Polar Sea, and there are currently no plans to replace them after they are decommissioned in the near future.  Neither Canada nor Norway seem to be in a hurry to meet this challenge by building a suitable fleet.

Russian and Canadian Governments Come Closer to Making Northwest Passage A Reality
Russia’s Minister of Transport was in Ottawa in January 2008 to meet with his Canadian counterpart to encourage the federal government to move on a proposal which would see Arctic maritime and air routes more viable.  Seven Russian icebreakers are ready to keep the cross-polar trade route between Russia and the port city of Churchill, Manitoba open year round.

If this move is successful, the Russian icebreakers would clear the way for freighters to travel between Murmansk and Churchill.  First shipments will likely consist of fertilizer and liquefied natural gas to be distributed through North America and beyond.  Infrastructure needs are being investigated now.

In order to make this route a reality a number of aspects need to be worked out including signed agreements between, rules and regulations for ships from Russia to enter Canadian water, facilities to load and unload container ships, ship servicing facilites, and railroads to transport the goods from Churchill.

The end of March should see the Russian and Canadian officials meet in Ottawa to continue this conversation.

Forward to Build a Secure Polar Shipping Future
The legalities of regulation and control of international shipping are complex. If each of the nations of Russia, Canada, US, Denmark and Norway decide to impose their own controls, many legal challenges will arise.  There is no resembling case in recorded history to draw experience from.

According to the Canadian Polar Commission, major actions that need to be taken right now are:

• New international protocols established for polar navigation, paying attention to the unique circumstances of ice navigation in relation to ship loss or damage and consequent pollution.
• Ice navigator standards need to be established for certification of personnel.  The lack of certified ice navigators is a potential disaster zone. Marine insurers are unlikely to accept this risk without special premiums for polar navigation that will mean enormous cost for the shipping industry.
• Nations with polar coastlines should be working towards establishing national fleets of worthy vessels, including dedicated polar icebreakers to assist and rescue commercial vessels.